Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Paraguay
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $939,931$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,008,849.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,008,849.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,317$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,435.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,435.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,080$ on 2020-11-19

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,349,434$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,686,687.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,686,687.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,532$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,730.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 203.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,730.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $145,388$ on 2020-11-19

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,981,767$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,880,643.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,880,643.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $168,061$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,139.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(166,139.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $407,640$ on 2020-11-19

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $536,012$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{490,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(490,505.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,955$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,758.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 114.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13,758.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,183$ on 2020-11-19

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,756$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,451.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.7)}}\) (asimptote \(143,451.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,889$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,273.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,176$ on 2020-11-19

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,246$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,087.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 163.5)}}\) (asimptote \(211,087.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,073$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,686.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 169.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,686.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,534$ on 2020-11-19

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,225,490$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,236,882.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 173.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,236,882.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,761$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,840.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 152.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,840.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,336$ on 2020-11-19

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,495$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,460.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 198.3)}}\) (asimptote \(80,460.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,636$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,716.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 194.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,716.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,799$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 73%
Venezuela recovered 66%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,665$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 171.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100,610.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $863$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{911.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 163.8)}}\) (asimptote \(911.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,111$ on 2020-11-19