Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $939,931$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,008,849.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,008,849.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,317$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,435.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,435.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,080$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,349,434$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,686,687.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,686,687.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,532$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,730.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 203.0)}}\) (asimptote \(46,730.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $145,388$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,981,767$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,880,643.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,880,643.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $168,061$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,139.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(166,139.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $407,640$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $536,012$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{490,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(490,505.8\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,955$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,758.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 114.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13,758.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,183$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $143,756$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,451.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.7)}}\) (asimptote \(143,451.7\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,889$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,273.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,273.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,176$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $183,246$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,087.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 163.5)}}\) (asimptote \(211,087.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,073$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,686.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 169.7)}}\) (asimptote \(16,686.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,534$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,225,490$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,236,882.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 173.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,236,882.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,761$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,840.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 152.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,840.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,336$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,495$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,460.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 198.3)}}\) (asimptote \(80,460.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,636$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,716.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 194.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,716.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,799$ on 2020-11-19